IT之家 8 月 23 日消息,特斯拉本月早些时候邀请摩根大通分析师参观了旗下的一座工厂,这家华尔街投行随后在最新发布的投资者报告中披露了此次考察的发现。其中一项值得关注的信息是,特斯拉承认正在放缓将 Model Y 纳入 Robotaxi 车队的速度,但公司对此有充分理由。

摩根大通分析师近日参观了特斯拉弗里蒙特工厂,并与该公司的投资者关系团队进行了交流。

二 | 通过此次考察,分析师对特斯拉的 Robotaxi 战略有了更清晰的认识。根据摩根大通的报告,特斯拉目前正有意控制 Model Y 加入 Robotaxi 车队的速度。该行分析师表示:“特斯拉表示,公司正在有意放缓向 Robotaxi 车队增加 Model Y 的速度,因为其相信 Cybercab 能够在短期内实现快速规模化部署。

三 |

Schematic diagram of Milky Way Photo: Courtesy of Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO)
Chinese astronomers have discovered that the Milky Way is not a simple, smoothly warped disk, but contains widespread "wrinkle-like" structures resembling ripples on a water surface, providing new clues to understanding the galaxy's 3D structure and evolutionary history.
The discovery was made by a research team from the Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, using data from the "Milky Way Imaging Scroll Painting" (MWISP) survey. The findings were published online titled "Widespread corrugations superimposed on the Galactic warp in the outer CO disk" in the journal
Nature Astronomy on August 7.
For decades, astronomers have known that the Milky Way's disk is not perfectly flat. Instead, its outer regions are slightly bent upward on one side and downward on the other - a structure known as a galactic warp.
However, the latest study shows that this large-scale bending is not the whole story. Smaller-scale vertical fluctuations are also embedded within the warped disk, creating a more complicated 3D structure.
"In many illustrations and in the public imagination, the Milky Way looks like a flat vinyl record," Sun Yan, associate researcher at PMO and the first author of the paper, told the Global Times on Tuesday. "In reality, the outer part of the Milky Way is more like a record that has been heated and deformed, with one side lifted and the other side lowered. That is the warp. On top of this large-scale deformation, there are additional smaller waves, which we call corrugations," Sun explained.
Using a more everyday analogy, Sun compared the Milky Way's structure to a sea surface. The warp is like a large swell that changes the overall height of the ocean, while corrugations are smaller waves superimposed on that swell.
"The two structures exist together. In our data analysis, we first removed the large-scale warp model, which allowed us to reveal the smaller wave-like patterns hidden underneath," Sun said.
The research focused on the Milky Way's outer gas disk rather than the more familiar stellar disk. According to Sun, cold molecular gas and stars provide two complementary ways to study the galaxy.
"Molecular gas is a sensitive probe for studying the vertical structure and dynamics of the galactic disk because it is concentrated near the disk plane and responds strongly to disturbances," she said.
Molecular gas is also the raw material for star formation, meaning its distribution is closely connected with the formation of young stars. The researchers traced this gas through carbon monoxide (CO) emission, which can penetrate regions obscured by interstellar dust and provide a different perspective from optical observations of stars.
The breakthrough was made possible by the MWISP survey, conducted using China's 13.7-meter millimeter-wave telescope.
"MWISP can be understood as giving the Milky Way a large-scale medical examination using millimeter-wave observations," Sun said.
Previous CO surveys were limited in sensitivity and coverage, making it difficult to accurately study the distant outer regions of the galaxy. In contrast, the latest study identified more than 30,000 molecular cloud samples, covering about half of the Milky Way's outer disk and extending to a distance of about 26 kiloparsecs from the Galactic center.
With such a large dataset, researchers were able to first establish a model of the overall warp and then separate subtle structures from the background. The newly identified corrugations have radial wavelengths of about 3.9-7.9 kiloparsecs and vertical amplitudes of about 100-200 parsecs.
The study also identified a corrugation structure extending about 40 kiloparsecs in azimuth at a distance of around 12.7 kiloparsecs from the Galactic center. In some spiral arm regions, vertical displacements can reach approximately 200 parsecs.
The researchers believe these large-scale vertical fluctuations are likely related to "bending waves" triggered by external gravitational disturbances, suggesting that the Milky Way might have experienced more complex interactions during its evolutionary history.
Although the newly discovered structures sound dramatic, they do not have any direct impact on Earth or the solar system. "Humans cannot directly sense these corrugations," Sun said. "Their scales reach thousands or even tens of thousands of light-years, and even if these structures are evolving, such changes would not be directly perceptible on human timescales."
The study focuses on the outer disk of the Milky Way and does not include the region around the solar system. "There is currently no evidence that these structures have any observable influence on Earth's environment," Sun said.
Instead, their significance lies in what they reveal about the past. Like geological layers recording Earth's history, these galactic structures preserve traces of the Milky Way's evolutionary journey, the researchers explained.
Researchers said future studies combining more precise motion measurements and numerical simulations could further reveal the origins of these structures and their role in the long-term evolution of the Milky Way.
。对于 FSD V15,特斯拉认为这是一次性能上的重大飞跃,其提升幅度可与 V13 升级至 V14 时相提并论。V15 升级包含七项核心技术,其中约 40% 目前正在 Robotaxi 车队中进行测试,初步反馈令人鼓舞。”这一做法并不意味着特斯拉的自动驾驶计划出现延误,或者公司对自动驾驶技术失去信心。恰恰相反,这反映出特斯拉管理层对专为 Robotaxi 打造的 Cybercab 能够在短期内快速扩大规模充满信心。

四 | IT之家注意到,自从在奥斯汀推出 Robotaxi 服务,并将业务扩展至其他市场以来,特斯拉的 Robotaxi 车队一直主要采用经过改装的 Model Y。不过,该公司如今正有意放缓进一步改装 Model Y 的速度。原因其实很简单。特斯拉管理层认为,Cybercab 是一款专门针对 Robotaxi 运营设计的车型,采用双座布局,没有方向盘和踏板,能够更适应高频率运营需求。因此,在未来几个月内,Cybercab 的生产和部署效率可能会高于改装 Model Y。

五 | 对于大多数通常只有一两名乘客的出行订单来说,这种专用车型也有望带来更好的单车运营经济效益。同时,减少 Model Y 向 Robotaxi 车队的转化,也可以让更多车辆留给普通消费者市场销售。

六 | 支撑这一战略调整的关键之一是 FSD V15。

七 | 特斯拉将其描述为一次真正意义上的性能跃升,提升幅度可与 V13 升级至 V14 时相比。FSD V15 引入了七项核心技术,其中约 40% 已经在现有 Robotaxi 车队中进行真实道路测试,早期反馈被形容为“令人鼓舞”。

八 | 特斯拉目前正谨慎推进软件开发,在不断加入新功能的同时,尽量避免影响已有的核心驾驶功能。管理层将 FSD V15 视为实现无人监督 FSD 大规模推广的关键入口。值得注意的是,特斯拉现有的 AI 计算平台和 Hardware 4 硬件系统已经能够运行 FSD V15,并支持无人监督的自动驾驶功能。Cybercab 本身也只是特斯拉这一自动驾驶平台上的第一款车型。

九 | 特斯拉重申,未来还将推出更多不同形态的产品,并以此前展示的“Robovan”等概念为例,说明这一平台未来可以扩展至更多类型的无人驾驶车辆。与此同时,特斯拉的人形机器人 Optimus 项目也在持续推进。

十 | 该项目仍计划在未来几个月内启动生产,并最早可能于 2027 年下半年开始商业销售。至于 Optimus Gen 3,特斯拉计划在临近量产时再公布更多细节,以保护自身的竞争优势。而下一代 Gen 4 的研发范围和功能设计,则将更多基于 Gen 3 在现实世界中的实际运行经验。摩根大通在此次交流后,对特斯拉的制造自动化能力有了更深入的认识,并维持对特斯拉 475 美元的目标股价。因此,放缓将 Model Y 纳入 Robotaxi 车队的速度,并不是特斯拉 Robotaxi 战略受挫,而是一项经过权衡后的战略选择。特斯拉管理层显然希望将更多资源投入到效率更高、专门为无人出租车服务打造的 Cybercab 上,并相信这款车型已经具备在未来快速扩大规模的条件。